No. Some people say that the economy is slowly recovering. I dont think so.
In the past 10 months, order level has decreased over 50%. This will impact industries with long cycles in the coming 6 months dramatically. Today, capital intensive industries are working on projects they have acquired one or two years ago.
Current deflation will decrease corporate profits, leading to an increase of unemployment. This again will drive down consumption, increase government spendings, more losses in all areas of government such as healthcare, etc.
Keynesian demand creation from government programs (that started in this year) which include infrastructure projects will only have a short term effect (which we misinterpret partially now as a recovery phenomenon). As these do not positively economic growth in the midterm governments will nerveously decrease taxes, leading to more debt again leading to hyperinflation in the longterm.
(They should focus on supply side driven innovation projects which dont payoff in the short term, but create sustainable economic value in the future)
This will be spurred by the Fed, who will act as an agent of the Wall Street Gang, missing the right point (timing) to increase interest rates to meet potential inflation in anticipation.
The worst case scenario is that the banking industry is recovering quickly, paying back governement (tax) money without reforming the whole system.
The worst case scenario is that another bubble burst such as credit default swaps could cause the global economy to collapse this time.
